Baylor vs UCF
Baylor visit UCF in Week 9. The model favors Baylor by 1.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market part ways here. SP+ rates Baylor 8.5 (43rd) against UCF 4.5 (56th), a four-point edge that yields a 54% Baylor win probability and a projected 1.6-point Baylor margin. The consensus line disagrees, pricing UCF minus-1.5 with the total at 47.5 and an implied 54% for the hosts. The ProphetX exchange sits between those poles, offering Baylor at plus-103 (49%) and UCF at minus-106 (51%), closer to a coin flip than either model or book.
The unit ranks favor Baylor's defense, 29th against UCF's 63rd-ranked offense, while UCF's 43rd defense meets a 59th Baylor offense. Series history is one-sided: Baylor leads 2-0 and took the 2025 meeting 30-3, reinforcing the model's tilt. Both profiles are modest, with Baylor projected for 6.3 wins and UCF 6.8.
Both enter 4-3. Baylor pairs a 55-19 rout at Arizona State and a 23-13 win over Colorado with three one-score losses, including 24-25 at Kansas and 16-17 at Auburn. UCF beat TCU 21-13 and BYU 39-31 but fell 17-27 at Houston and 28-42 at Oklahoma State. The ratings gap and series favor Baylor, leaving the market's home tilt the outlier.
SP+ leans Baylor while the market frames UCF a 1.5-point home favorite, and the exchange splits the difference near even.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Baylor's win price; UCF's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Baylor is favored, below it UCF is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Baylor vs UCF game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Baylor vs UCF market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Baylor and UCF play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 30, 2026 at UCF.
Who is favored?
The model projects Baylor by 1.6 (54% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Baylor lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →