Arizona vs Texas Tech
Arizona visit Texas Tech in Week 9. The model favors Texas Tech by 4.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by just 2.4 points, rating Texas Tech 18.4 (ninth) over Arizona at 16 (14th), and projects the Red Raiders by 4.8 with a 61% win probability. The market sits a touch softer: a consensus line of Texas Tech -3.5 implies 58%, while the ProphetX exchange prices the Red Raiders at -158 for 61% and Arizona at +154 for 39%. Model and exchange agree almost exactly, leaving no meaningful gap to exploit at the headline number.
The unit ranks favor the home side marginally, with Texas Tech's offense 10th against Arizona's 14th and the defenses nearly level at 23rd and 24th. Both teams carry 6-1 records built on lopsided wins: Arizona throttled Iowa State 39-3 and won 52-31 at West Virginia, while Texas Tech posted a 53-25 result over Arizona State and 29-7 at Colorado. Each lone loss came on the road, Arizona 17-28 at BYU and Texas Tech 24-37 at Cincinnati.
The series is even at 1-1, with Texas Tech taking the 2024 meeting 28-22, close to the 4.8-point projection here. Simulations give Texas Tech 9.3 wins and a 43.9% Playoff chance against Arizona's 8.9 and 29.9%, reinforcing a slight but consistent lean toward the home contract on a total of 54.5.
The model and both markets land in the same place: Texas Tech a narrow favorite around 61%, with little edge to mine on either side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Arizona's win price; Texas Tech's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Arizona is favored, below it Texas Tech is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Arizona vs Texas Tech game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Arizona vs Texas Tech market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Arizona and Texas Tech play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Texas Tech.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas Tech by 4.8 (61% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →