Houston vs Texas Tech
Houston visit Texas Tech in Week 3. The model favors Texas Tech by 10.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these Big 12 teams by 7.5 points, rating Texas Tech 19.1 (15th) against Houston 11.6 (31st), and projects the Red Raiders by 9.9 with a 73 percent win probability. The market is a shade softer: Texas Tech -7.5 with a 26.5 total implies 68 percent, while the ProphetX exchange prices the Red Raiders at -270, or 73 percent, matching the model against Houston's +255 (28 percent). The two-point gap between the projected margin and the consensus spread is the clearest disagreement, and it tilts toward Texas Tech.
Unit ratings reinforce the edge. Texas Tech's offense (11th) and defense (15th) both outrank Houston's offense (24th) and defense (43rd), with the Cougar defense the weakest of the four. Series history is one-sided: Houston is 0-6 all time, most recently a 35-11 loss in 2025.
Early results are less separating. Houston opened 33-20 over Oregon State and 77-6 over Southern, while Texas Tech beat Abilene Christian 33-10 and won at Oregon State 35-24. Season simulations frame the tiers: Texas Tech projects for 9.1 wins and a 39.5 percent Playoff chance against Houston's 7.5 wins and 11.1 percent.
The model, the exchange and the series all lean Texas Tech, and only the market spread offers Houston any daylight.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Houston's win price; Texas Tech's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Houston is favored, below it Texas Tech is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Houston vs Texas Tech game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Houston vs Texas Tech market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Houston and Texas Tech play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Texas Tech.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas Tech by 10.1 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Texas Tech lead 6-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →