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Matchup preview

Texas Tech vs Colorado

Texas Tech visit Colorado in Week 5. The model favors Texas Tech by 33.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
98%
2%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
#3SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#96
#6FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#77
2056EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1344
2.7%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Texas TechColoradosolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Colorado lead 1-0
20242024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
41-27
Colorado
at Texas Tech
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

When do Texas Tech and Colorado play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Colorado.

Who is favored?

The model projects Texas Tech by 33.5 (98% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Colorado lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.

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