Redshirt
Matchup preview

UTSA vs Texas State

UTSA visit Texas State in Week 2. The model favors Texas State by 1.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
47%
53%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
UTSA23%-8 ptsvsTexas State77%+8 pts
0%25%50%75%100%UTSA favoredTexas State favoredAug 30Sep 1

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UTSA's win price; Texas State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UTSA is favored, below it Texas State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 1.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#71SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#77
#62FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#72
1668EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1606
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
UTSATexas Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
UTSA lead 4-2
Texas State have won the last 2
20172025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
43-36
Texas State
at UTSA
2024
49-10
Texas State
at Texas State
2023
20-13
UTSA
at UTSA
2020
51-48
UTSA
at Texas State
2018
25-21
UTSA
at UTSA
2017
44-14
UTSA
at Texas State
More Week 2 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the UTSA vs Texas State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UTSA vs Texas State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do UTSA and Texas State play?

Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Texas State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Texas State by 1.4 (53% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

UTSA lead 4-2 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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