North Texas vs Texas State
North Texas visit Texas State in Week 3. The model favors Texas State by 3.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ pegs Texas State at -6.5 (rank 90) against North Texas at -8.1 (rank 107), a slim 1.6-point edge that translates to a projected Texas State win by 4 and a 60% model win probability. The market prices the game tighter: Texas State -3 on a 63.3 total, with consensus implying 57% and the ProphetX exchange offering Texas State -136 (58%) versus North Texas +130 (43%). Model and market land on the same favorite, but SP+ leans three points stronger on the home side.
The unit splits explain the shootout total. Texas State's offense (#41) outranks North Texas (#74), yet both defenses are near the floor at #132 and #121. Season results sharpen the picture: North Texas already hung 44 on UNLV after a 16-52 loss at Indiana, while Texas State dropped both games, 7-59 at Texas and 26-31 to UTSA. The 0.7-point rating gap sits inside noise.
The lone meeting, a 30-28 Texas State win in 2024, reinforces a coin-flip feel. Projected win totals (6.3 for North Texas, 4.6 for Texas State) favor the visitor's season, but this contract rates as a narrow Texas State hold.
Model and market agree on Texas State but SP+ leans harder; two porous defenses point to the 63.3 total in a coin-flip matchup.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as North Texas's win price; Texas State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line North Texas is favored, below it Texas State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the North Texas vs Texas State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the North Texas vs Texas State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do North Texas and Texas State play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Texas State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas State by 3.2 (58% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Texas State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →