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Matchup preview

Texas State vs San Diego State

Texas State visit San Diego State in Week 5. The model favors Texas State by 7.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
68%
32%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
TXST -9.8
Total (O/U)
57.5
Favorite
TXST
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Texas State3%-23 ptsvsSan Diego State97%+23 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Texas State favoredSan Diego State favoredSep 26Sep 28Sep 30Oct 2Oct 4Oct 5

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Texas State's win price; San Diego State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Texas State is favored, below it San Diego State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 17.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#71SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#109
#72FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#67
1606EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1528
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Texas StateSan Diego Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Texas State vs San Diego State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Texas State vs San Diego State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Texas State and San Diego State play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 4, 2026 at San Diego State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Texas State by 7.6 (68% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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