Colorado State vs Texas State
Colorado State visit Texas State in Week 7. The model favors Texas State by 10. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 7.6 points of rating, with Texas State at -0.2 (71st) and Colorado State at -7.8 (103rd), and translates that gap into a 73 percent win probability for the host and a projected 10-point margin. The market pushes harder in the same direction: Texas State -14, a total of 69.5, and an implied 80 percent. The ProphetX exchange goes further still, pricing the Bobcats at -540 (84 percent) against Colorado State at +530 (16 percent). Every layer favors Texas State, but the four-point spread premium over the model margin and the 11-point probability gap put the value on the Colorado State side of the number.
The unit ranks frame the projected total: Texas State's offense (30th) faces a Colorado State defense ranked 127th, while the Rams' offense (61st) draws a Bobcats defense at 118th. Two leaky defenses support the 69.5 line. Season form is mixed for both. Colorado State opened 2-0 (35-13, 58-24) then dropped three straight, including 45-59 at UTSA and 26-56 against Oregon State. Texas State sits with wins of 49-35 and 63-10 against two narrow road losses (29-31, 26-31) and a 7-59 blowout at Texas.
Simulations project 5.2 wins for Texas State and 4.5 for Colorado State, with neither carrying meaningful postseason equity (0.1 percent and 0 percent to reach the Playoff).
Every model, market, and exchange reading favors Texas State, but the price has run past the projected 10-point margin, leaving the edge on Colorado State.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Colorado State's win price; Texas State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Colorado State is favored, below it Texas State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Colorado State vs Texas State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Colorado State vs Texas State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Colorado State and Texas State play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 16, 2026 at Texas State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas State by 10 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →