Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State
Vanderbilt visit Mississippi State in Week 10. The model favors Mississippi State by 9.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market disagree on scale, not direction. SP+ rates Mississippi State 6 (52nd) against Vanderbilt at -1.4 (77th), projecting a Mississippi State win by 9.8 and a 72% win probability. The consensus line across two books sits at only Mississippi State -3 with a 48.5 total, implying 57%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Mississippi State -142 at 59% against Vanderbilt +138. That 13-to-15 point probability gap is the trade: the model is markedly more confident in the home side than the contracts are.
The ratings gap is widened by unit splits. Mississippi State's offense ranks 35th against a Vanderbilt defense at 89th, while Vanderbilt's 66th offense faces a 68th-ranked defense. The series adds weight on the same side: Mississippi State leads 3-0, and the last meeting in 2021 was a 45-6 rout.
Form is mixed. Vanderbilt is 3-5 with wins over Austin Peay, Delaware and NC State but five straight-up losses in SEC play, including 17-52 to Ole Miss, tracking toward a projected 4.1 wins. Mississippi State sits at a projected 6.5 wins with road victories at Minnesota 38-13 and South Carolina 41-34, though its four losses came by 33, 31, 8 and 28. Neither team carries Playoff equity: 0% and 0.8% to make it, with matching 0.7% market title odds.
SP+ sees a comfortable Mississippi State hold at 9.8 points, but the market prices barely half that, leaving a clear model-market gap.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Vanderbilt's win price; Mississippi State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Vanderbilt is favored, below it Mississippi State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Vanderbilt and Mississippi State play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Mississippi State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Mississippi State by 9.8 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Mississippi State lead 3-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →