UL Monroe vs Mississippi State
UL Monroe visit Mississippi State in Week 1. The model favors Mississippi State by 43.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch with almost no ambiguity. Mississippi State rates 4.8 (52nd) against UL Monroe at -28.9 (136th), a 33.7-point ratings gap that projects to a 36.1-point home margin and a 99% Bulldog win probability. The market is slightly more cautious: the consensus line of -28.5 across two books implies 96% for Mississippi State, leaving UL Monroe 4% versus the model's 1%. That 7.6-point spread between the model's projected margin and the market number is the only real disagreement on the board.
The unit ranks explain the gulf. Mississippi State's offense (35th) faces a UL Monroe defense ranked 135th, while the Bulldog defense (74th) draws a UL Monroe offense ranked dead last at 136th. Both matchups tilt one direction, consistent with a posted total of 54.8. Season simulations reinforce the tiers: Mississippi State projects to 5.3 wins with 1.4% Playoff odds, UL Monroe to 3.2 wins with 0% to reach the Playoff, and neither at 0% to win the title.
The read is whether Mississippi State covers the 28.5, not whether it wins. The model's 36.1-point projection sits well clear of the number, and the 3-to-4 point edge the market gives UL Monroe on win probability is the lone crack for the underdog to work.
SP+ sees Mississippi State by 36.1 against a 28.5 line, the model landing well clear of the market number.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UL Monroe vs Mississippi State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UL Monroe vs Mississippi State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UL Monroe and Mississippi State play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Mississippi State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Mississippi State by 43.4 (100% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →