Liberty vs Coastal Carolina
Liberty visit Coastal Carolina in Week 4. The model favors Liberty by 15.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 7.2 points of rating, placing Liberty at -3 (82nd) and Coastal Carolina at -10.2 (109th), and projects Liberty by 4.8. The market is more cautious: the consensus of two books puts Coastal Carolina at +2.8 with a 50.3 total, implying 57% for Liberty and 43% for the host. On the ProphetX exchange Liberty sits at -130 (57%) against Coastal Carolina at +125 (44%). The model's 61% for Liberty runs four points ahead of the market's 57%, so the disagreement is one of degree, with SP+ pressing the favorite harder than the price does.
Unit ranks reinforce the edge: Liberty grades higher on both sides, offense 76th to 93rd and defense 88th to 112th, and the defensive gap is the widest single split. Series history leans the same way, Coastal Carolina 1-3 against Liberty, the last meeting a 37-34 Liberty win in 2020. Form is mixed. Liberty is 2-1 with a 51-15 rout of Ball State but a one-point escape past Gardner-Webb and a 13-20 loss at James Madison. Coastal Carolina is 1-2, blending a 45-7 win over Fordham with losses at West Virginia (24-31) and Delaware (14-22).
Over 10,000 runs Liberty projects to 8 wins against 5.4 for Coastal Carolina, framing the visitor as the sturdier profile on rating, units, and history alike.
Model and market both favor Liberty, with SP+ four points more confident than a price the ratings and unit gaps support.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Liberty's win price; Coastal Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Liberty is favored, below it Coastal Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Liberty vs Coastal Carolina game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Liberty vs Coastal Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Liberty and Coastal Carolina play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 24, 2026 at Coastal Carolina.
Who is favored?
The model projects Liberty by 15.9 (83% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Liberty lead 3-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →