Liberty vs Delaware
Liberty visit Delaware in Week 5. The model favors Liberty by 16.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ pegs Liberty at 2.5 (62nd) against Delaware at -10.7 (110th), a 13.2-point ratings chasm that flows straight into a projected Liberty margin of 10.8 and a 74% model win probability. The market sits meaningfully softer: Delaware +7 and a 50.3 total imply 66% for Liberty, while the ProphetX exchange prices Liberty at -255 (72%) versus Delaware +250 (29%). The model, in other words, is a touch more bullish on Liberty than the consensus line, closer to where the exchange has settled.
The unit ranks underline the tilt. Liberty grades out at #63 offense and #54 defense; Delaware trails badly at #100 and #108, a two-sided deficit that matches the rating gap rather than contradicting it. Season outlooks reinforce the separation: Liberty projects to 8.9 wins with a 7.4% Playoff chance, Delaware to 6 wins at 0.1%. The lone series meeting, Liberty's 59-30 win in 2025, adds to the one-way history.
Results this season cut both ways. Liberty is 3-1 with wins at Coastal Carolina 34-17 and over Ball State 51-15, its only loss 13-20 at James Madison. Delaware is 2-2, having beaten Coastal Carolina 22-14 but absorbed a 3-42 loss at Virginia, evidence the model's low rating is earned.
Model likes Liberty more than the +7 line, aligning with the exchange's 72%, and every ratings and results angle points the same way.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Liberty vs Delaware game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Liberty vs Delaware market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Liberty and Delaware play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 2, 2026 at Delaware.
Who is favored?
The model projects Liberty by 16.8 (85% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Liberty lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →