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Matchup preview

Liberty vs New Mexico State

Liberty visit New Mexico State in Week 10. The model favors Liberty by 18.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
87%
13%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
LIB -15.8
Total (O/U)
46.3
Favorite
LIB
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Liberty87%+11 ptsvsNew Mexico State13%-11 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Liberty favoredNew Mexico State favoredOct 30Nov 2Nov 4Nov 6Nov 7

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Liberty's win price; New Mexico State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Liberty is favored, below it New Mexico State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#45SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#119
#104FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#126
1441EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1172
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
LibertyNew Mexico Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Liberty lead 7-2
Liberty have won the last 4
20182025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
30-27
Liberty
at Liberty
2024
30-24
Liberty
at New Mexico State
2023
33-17
Liberty
at Liberty
2023
49-35
Liberty
at Liberty
2022
49-14
New Mexico State
at Liberty
2019
20-13
Liberty
at New Mexico State
2019
49-28
Liberty
at Liberty
2018
49-41
New Mexico State
at New Mexico State
2018
28-21
Liberty
at Liberty
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Liberty vs New Mexico State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Liberty vs New Mexico State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Liberty and New Mexico State play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 8, 2026 at New Mexico State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Liberty by 18.5 (87% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Liberty lead 7-2 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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