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Matchup preview

Western Kentucky vs Liberty

Western Kentucky visit Liberty in Week 12. The model favors Liberty by 31.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
3%
97%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Western Kentucky13%-1 ptsvsLiberty87%+1 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Western Kentucky favoredLiberty favoredNov 8Nov 8

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Western Kentucky's win price; Liberty's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Western Kentucky is favored, below it Liberty is, and each segment takes the favored team's color. Polymarket publishes a daily close, drawn as a line. As of Nov 8.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#120SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#22
#94FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#104
1408EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1441
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Western KentuckyLibertysolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Liberty lead 3-0
Liberty have won the last 3
20202024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
38-21
Liberty
at Liberty
2023
42-29
Liberty
at Western Kentucky
2020
30-24
Liberty
at Western Kentucky
More Week 12 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Western Kentucky vs Liberty game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Western Kentucky vs Liberty market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Western Kentucky and Liberty play?

Week 12 of 2026, on Nov 21, 2026 at Liberty.

Who is favored?

The model projects Liberty by 31.1 (97% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Liberty lead 3-0 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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