Florida International vs Liberty
Florida International visit Liberty in Week 9. The model favors Liberty by 26.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Liberty at 7.5 (45th) against Florida International at -7.9 (100th), a gap that projects Liberty by 17.8 and assigns the Flames an 86 percent win probability. The market is more cautious: the consensus line of Liberty -14 with a 44.8 total implies 80 percent, while the ProphetX exchange offers Liberty -560 (85 percent) and Florida International +510 (16 percent). The model therefore sits a touch above the 14-point spread, and the exchange price tracks closer to SP+ than the posted line does.
The unit ranks reinforce the lean. Liberty pairs the 56th offense with the 34th defense; Florida International brings the 118th offense and a more respectable 61st defense. Results back the separation: Liberty is 6-1 with wins of 51-15, 35-3 and 34-6 since a 13-20 opener at James Madison, while Florida International is 3-4 with three single-digit losses, including 24-27 and 23-26. Season simulations project 10 wins and a 22.7 percent Playoff chance for Liberty against 5.7 wins and zero for FIU.
Series history is the one counterweight: Florida International took the 2025 meeting 34-27 and sits 1-3 all time. That result, plus FIU's habit of close games, argues the margin could land under the model's 17.8 even if the outright edge holds firmly with Liberty.
Model and exchange both price Liberty near 85 percent, running ahead of the 14-point line, with series history the lone case for a tighter margin.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida International's win price; Liberty's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida International is favored, below it Liberty is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida International vs Liberty game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida International vs Liberty market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida International and Liberty play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Liberty.
Who is favored?
The model projects Liberty by 26.3 (94% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Liberty lead 3-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →