Ball State vs Liberty
Ball State visit Liberty in Week 3. The model favors Liberty by 23.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 14.2 rating points, Liberty at -7.1 (99th) over Ball State at -21.3 (131st), and translates that into a projected Liberty margin of 16.6 with an 84% win probability. The market shades slightly softer: a consensus -14.2 spread across two books implies 81%, while the ProphetX exchange prices Liberty at -560, or 85%. The alignment is tight, with the model's projected margin sitting 2.4 points above the posted line and the exchange essentially matching the model.
The unit ranks explain the gap. Liberty's offense (86) and defense (105) both outrank Ball State's offense (132) and defense (124), a two-sided edge rather than a single lopsided matchup. Results add nuance: Ball State was buried 3-56 at Ohio State before handling Stony Brook 41-17, while Liberty lost a one-score game 13-20 at James Madison and survived Gardner-Webb 24-23. Neither win was commanding, which frames the 49.5 total.
Season simulations project Liberty at 7.2 wins against Ball State's 4.8, with Playoff odds of 1.3% and 0% respectively. The consistency across model, market, and exchange leaves little disagreement to exploit.
Model, market, and exchange all land on Liberty near 81-85%, with the projected 16.6 margin edging the -14.2 line.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ball State's win price; Liberty's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ball State is favored, below it Liberty is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Ball State vs Liberty game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ball State vs Liberty market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Ball State and Liberty play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Liberty.
Who is favored?
The model projects Liberty by 23.7 (92% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →