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Matchup preview

Iowa State vs BYU

Iowa State visit BYU in Week 6. The model favors BYU by 20.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
11%
89%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · October 7 · refreshed weekly

SP+ frames this as a clear tier gap: BYU rates 16.3 (17th) against Iowa State at 3.4 (58th), good for an 82% model win probability and a projected BYU margin of 15.3 points. The market is more cautious, pricing BYU -10.2 with a 46.8 total and a 73% implied win probability, while the ProphetX exchange sits in between at BYU -370 (79%) versus Iowa State +360 (22%). That five-point spread between the projected margin and the consensus line is the central disagreement, with the model leaning harder on BYU than either the books or the exchange.

The unit ranks reinforce the lean: BYU grades out ahead on both sides, offense 24th and defense 21st, against Iowa State's 86th offense and 39th defense. Season form fits the ratings, with BYU 4-0 and Iowa State 3-2, the losses coming at Iowa 13-16 and to Utah 17-31. The series is even at 1-1, though BYU took the 2025 meeting 41-27. The simulations keep the teams apart on outlook: BYU projects to 8.8 wins with a 30% Playoff chance, Iowa State to 5.6 wins and 0.7%.

The model likes BYU harder than the market, flagging value on BYU laying points.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
BYU -11.2
Total (O/U)
46.5
Favorite
BYU
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
BYU
75%

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#76SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#13
#35FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#17
1629EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1750
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.7%
Iowa StateBYUsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 1-1
20232025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
41-27
BYU
at Iowa State
2023
45-13
Iowa State
at BYU
More Week 6 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Iowa State vs BYU game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Iowa State vs BYU market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Iowa State and BYU play?

Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at BYU.

Who is favored?

The model projects BYU by 20.3 (89% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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