BYU vs Utah
BYU visit Utah in Week 10. The model favors Utah by 3.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by just 1.3 points, rating Utah 18 (10th) over BYU 16.7 (13th), and projects Utah by 3.7 with a 59% win probability. The consensus line sits at Utah -5.2 with an implied 62%, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to Utah -182 (65%) against BYU +176 (36%). Every market read prices Utah more firmly than the model does, so the BYU contract near 38% to 41% is where the gap concentrates.
The unit ranks explain the lean: Utah's offense (#13) grades ahead of BYU's (#20), while the defenses are close, BYU #20 and Utah #22, and the total is set at 48.5. Series history cuts the other way, with Utah leading 3-5 but BYU taking the 2025 meeting 24-21, enough to keep the projected margin inside a field goal.
Form backs the tight read. Utah is unbeaten at 8-0, with a 49-25 win at Cincinnati and a 31-17 result at Iowa State. BYU sits 7-1, its only loss 31-39 at UCF, with wins over Notre Dame 28-24 and at TCU 17-10. Season sims give Utah 10.5 wins and 60.9% Playoff odds against BYU's 9.5 and 39.6%, and both title numbers, 3.2% and 2.5%, run above market marks of 1.9% and 1.5%.
The market prices Utah a half-step above SP+, leaving the BYU contract the spot where model and price diverge most.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as BYU's win price; Utah's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line BYU is favored, below it Utah is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the BYU vs Utah game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the BYU vs Utah market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do BYU and Utah play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Utah.
Who is favored?
The model projects Utah by 3.7 (59% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Utah lead 5-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →