Arizona vs BYU
Arizona visit BYU in Week 2. The model favors BYU by 10.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these Big 12 teams by 4.2 points, rating BYU 16.8 (18th) against Arizona 12.6 (24th), and the unit ranks echo it: BYU grades ahead on both sides, offense 18th to 24th and defense 19th to 25th. That edge translates to a projected BYU margin of 6.6 and a 66% model win probability. The consensus line sits a shade heavier at BYU -7.5, with a 47.8 total and a 68% implied number, so market and model agree on direction and differ by less than a point.
The ProphetX exchange pushes further, pricing BYU at -285 (74%) and Arizona at +255 (28%), a 6-point gap over the model on the favorite. Series history reinforces the lean: Arizona is 0-5 all-time against BYU, with the most recent meeting a 33-27 BYU win in 2025. Early results offer little separation, both opening with lopsided wins, Arizona 35-7 over Northern Arizona and BYU 63-7 over Utah Tech, against overmatched competition.
Season projections favor BYU across the board: 8 wins to Arizona's 7.7, and 28.4% to 15% on Playoff odds, though both carry identical 0.7% market title prices. The signal is consistent home favorite value with the exchange richest of the three.
Model, market and exchange all point to BYU, with the ProphetX price the most aggressive at 74% versus the model's 66%.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Arizona's win price; BYU's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Arizona is favored, below it BYU is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Arizona vs BYU game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Arizona vs BYU market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Arizona and BYU play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at BYU.
Who is favored?
The model projects BYU by 10.1 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
BYU lead 5-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →