Georgia vs Arkansas
Georgia visit Arkansas in Week 3. The model favors Georgia by 26.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch and the market barely argues. Georgia rates 29.3 (No. 1) against Arkansas at 1.5 (No. 68), a 27.8-point ratings gap that the model turns into a projected 25.4-point Georgia margin and a 94% win probability. The consensus line of Arkansas +24.5 implies 93% for Georgia, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to 96% on Georgia -2400. Across model, books and exchange, the disagreement is measured in a single point of spread and three points of implied probability.
The unit ranks explain the gap. Georgia pairs the No. 3 offense with the No. 5 defense, while Arkansas leans on a No. 34 offense behind a No. 100 defense, the seam the total of 54.3 is priced around. Results reinforce it: Georgia has scored 63 and 70 in wins over Tennessee State and Western Kentucky, while Arkansas beat North Alabama 31-14 but was buried 43-10 at Utah. The series adds weight, with Arkansas 0-3 all-time and shut out 37-0 in the 2021 meeting.
The season outlooks sit at opposite poles. Georgia projects 9.4 wins, a 72.8% Playoff chance and an 11.6% title probability that tracks the market's 11.2%. Arkansas projects 3.8 wins, 0.2% to reach the Playoff and 0% to win it, against a 0.7% market title price. Every input points the same direction, leaving little edge beyond the last point of spread.
Model, books and exchange all land on Georgia near 94%, with only a point of spread separating them from a No. 1 versus No. 68 mismatch.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Georgia's win price; Arkansas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Georgia is favored, below it Arkansas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Georgia vs Arkansas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Georgia vs Arkansas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Georgia and Arkansas play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Arkansas.
Who is favored?
The model projects Georgia by 26.1 (94% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Georgia lead 3-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →