Arkansas vs Vanderbilt
Arkansas visit Vanderbilt in Week 7. The model favors Vanderbilt by 1.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ makes this a modest Vanderbilt edge, rating the Commodores 1.2 (65th) against Arkansas at -2.4 (85th), a gap worth a projected six points. The market lands in the same place: Vanderbilt -6.2 with a 50.5 total and an implied 65 percent, versus the model's 64 percent. There is no daylight between the model and the consensus line here. Unit ranks tilt the same way, with Vanderbilt's offense (59th) and defense (82nd) each ahead of Arkansas (71st offense, 95th defense).
The ProphetX exchange prices Vanderbilt a touch harder, -210 for an implied 68 percent against Arkansas +205 at 33 percent, running three points richer than both the model and the consensus book line. Series history is thin and dated: Vanderbilt holds a 1-0 edge, winning the last meeting 45-31 back in 2018.
Form offers little separation. Arkansas is 2-4, with wins over North Alabama and Tulsa but losses to Utah, Georgia, Texas A&M and Tennessee. Vanderbilt is 3-3, beating Austin Peay, Delaware and NC State before dropping three straight to Auburn, Georgia and Ole Miss. Season sims project 5.1 wins for Vanderbilt and 3.6 for Arkansas, neither with a Playoff or title path of note.
Model and consensus agree on Vanderbilt by six; the exchange prices it three points steeper at 68 percent.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Arkansas's win price; Vanderbilt's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Arkansas is favored, below it Vanderbilt is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Arkansas vs Vanderbilt game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Arkansas vs Vanderbilt market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Arkansas and Vanderbilt play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Vanderbilt.
Who is favored?
The model projects Vanderbilt by 1.4 (53% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Vanderbilt lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →