Tennessee vs Arkansas
Tennessee visit Arkansas in Week 6. The model favors Tennessee by 15.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 18 points of rating, Tennessee at 17.7 and rank 14 against Arkansas at -0.3 and rank 71. That gap drives a projected Tennessee margin of 15.6 and an 83% model win probability. The market sits a notch softer: Arkansas +13.5 implies 21% for the home side, and the total is set at 51.5. The ProphetX exchange lands between them, pricing Tennessee at -490 for an 83% implied read that matches the model almost exactly, leaving Arkansas at +445, or 18%.
The unit ranks explain the spread. Tennessee pairs the #14 offense with a #26 defense, while Arkansas carries the #59 offense and a #90 defense, the clear weak point. Results reinforce the split: Tennessee is 4-1 with its only loss 17-20 to Texas and a 24-14 win over Auburn, while Arkansas is 2-3 with lopsided losses of 10-43 at Utah, 17-45 to Georgia, and 7-34 at Texas A&M. The two Arkansas wins came against North Alabama and Tulsa.
Series history cuts the other way, Arkansas leading 3-1, though the 2025 meeting went to Tennessee 34-31. Season outlooks diverge sharply: Tennessee projects 8.2 wins and 24.6% Playoff odds, Arkansas 4 wins and 0%. Model and exchange agree at 83%; the 2-book line is the lone outlier at 79%.
Model, exchange, and ratings gap all point Tennessee near 83%, with only the consensus line and Arkansas's 3-1 series edge offering pushback.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tennessee's win price; Arkansas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tennessee is favored, below it Arkansas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tennessee vs Arkansas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tennessee vs Arkansas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tennessee and Arkansas play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Arkansas.
Who is favored?
The model projects Tennessee by 15.9 (83% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Arkansas lead 3-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →