Arkansas vs Auburn
Arkansas visit Auburn in Week 10. The model favors Auburn by 9.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by roughly seven points, Auburn at 6.5 (51st) against Arkansas at minus 0.4 (71st), and translates that into a 71% Auburn win probability on a projected 9.3-point margin. The market prices Auburn more aggressively: the consensus line of Auburn minus 10.5 implies 74%, and the ProphetX exchange sits higher still at minus 370, or 79%, versus Arkansas plus 350 at 22%. That is a three-to-eight point gap between the model number and the tradable price, with every market read leaning harder on the favorite than the projection supports.
The unit ranks explain the lean. Auburn's defense ranks 31st against an Arkansas offense ranked 60th, the game's widest mismatch, while Auburn's 72nd-ranked offense faces an Arkansas defense down at 85th. The total of 52.5 reflects that two-way scoring room. Season form is mixed on both sides: Arkansas is uneven at 4-4 with blowout losses to Utah, Georgia, Texas A&M and Missouri, while Auburn alternates wins and losses, including a 27-24 road win at Georgia offset by 38-17 and 45-15 defeats to LSU and Ole Miss.
Series history favors Auburn 9-3, including last year's 33-24 meeting, consistent with the model's directional edge. The signal is a favorite the market backs past where SP+ sets the line, so the daylight lives on the Arkansas side of the number rather than the moneyline.
Model likes Auburn by 9.3 but the market's 10.5 and the 79% exchange price push past it, leaving value on the Arkansas spread.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Arkansas's win price; Auburn's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Arkansas is favored, below it Auburn is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Arkansas vs Auburn game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Arkansas vs Auburn market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Arkansas and Auburn play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Auburn.
Who is favored?
The model projects Auburn by 9.3 (71% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Auburn lead 9-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →