Old Dominion vs Georgia State
Old Dominion visit Georgia State in Week 5. The model favors Georgia State by 7.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ and the market split on this one. The model rates Old Dominion at -7.9 (101st) against Georgia State's -11.2 (111th), a 3.3-point edge that yields a 52% Old Dominion win probability and a projected Old Dominion margin of 0.9. The consensus line disagrees, posting Georgia State -2.2 with a 55% implied win probability, mirrored on ProphetX at -123 to Old Dominion's +117 (46%). That gap between a model leaning visitor and a price leaning home is the trade to isolate.
The unit ranks explain the tension. Old Dominion's defense (#73) is the strongest single unit on the field, while its offense (#117) is the weakest; Georgia State pairs a #85 offense with a #125 defense. That points a total of 51.5 toward Georgia State's ability to score against a soft resistance, but the model still favors Old Dominion's defense-first profile. Season projections lean host: 6.7 wins for Georgia State against 5.5 for Old Dominion, neither with a Playoff path.
History sits firmly with the visitor: Georgia State is 0-3 all-time against Old Dominion, losing 27-10 in the 2025 meeting. Form is mixed. Old Dominion is 1-3, its wins and losses lopsided (31-10, 20-46). Georgia State is 3-1, with a 59-10 rout and a 30-44 loss at UCF. The market prices the home field the model does not.
Model backs Old Dominion at 52% while the market prices Georgia State -2.2, and an 0-3 series leans the visitor's way.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Old Dominion's win price; Georgia State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Old Dominion is favored, below it Georgia State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Old Dominion vs Georgia State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Old Dominion vs Georgia State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Old Dominion and Georgia State play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Georgia State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Georgia State by 7.5 (68% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Old Dominion lead 3-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →