James Madison vs Old Dominion
James Madison visit Old Dominion in Week 4. The model favors James Madison by 16.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these Sun Belt sides by 13.2 rating points, pegging James Madison at 6.2 (rank 50) against Old Dominion at -7 (rank 97). The model projects James Madison by 10.8 and a 74% win probability, running ahead of the market: the consensus line sits at Old Dominion +6 with a 64% implied number for the visitor, and the ProphetX exchange offers James Madison at -205 (67%). Every read favors James Madison, but the model prices the edge more aggressively than the two-book line does.
The unit ranks explain the gap. James Madison grades out at #55 offense and #47 defense, while Old Dominion sits at #115 offense and #69 defense, a mismatch that weighs on both sides of the ball. Series history reinforces it: James Madison is 4-0 all time and took the 2025 meeting 63-27.
Results this season track the ratings. James Madison is 3-0 (20-13 over Liberty, 87-3 over Wagner, 26-13 at San Diego State), while Old Dominion is 1-2, beating Norfolk State 31-10 but losing 21-44 at Virginia Tech and 17-20 to East Carolina. The simulation projects 9.8 wins and a 20.1% Playoff chance for James Madison versus 6 wins and 0.5% for Old Dominion.
Model and market both lean James Madison, with SP+ and the 74% projection pricing a wider edge than the market's +6 line.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as James Madison's win price; Old Dominion's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line James Madison is favored, below it Old Dominion is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the James Madison vs Old Dominion game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the James Madison vs Old Dominion market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do James Madison and Old Dominion play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Old Dominion.
Who is favored?
The model projects James Madison by 16.9 (85% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
James Madison lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →