East Carolina vs Old Dominion
East Carolina visit Old Dominion in Week 3. The model favors East Carolina by 6.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market land on the same side by a hair. SP+ separates these teams by 0.2 rating points, East Carolina at -6.7 (94th) against Old Dominion at -6.9 (96th), and still leans Old Dominion, projecting a 2.2-point home margin and a 55% win probability. The consensus line (Old Dominion -2.7, total 49.3) implies 56%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Old Dominion at -138, or 58%. Three sources cluster in a narrow band, so any edge here is marginal.
Unit ranks explain the tilt. Old Dominion's defense (76th) outranks every other unit on the field, while East Carolina's offense (99th) and Old Dominion's offense (112th) drag the total. Results this season cut both ways: East Carolina fell 48-10 at Alabama and 27-24 to App State, while Old Dominion beat Norfolk State 31-10 before losing 44-21 at Virginia Tech. Season simulations give Old Dominion 6.6 projected wins to East Carolina's 5.6, with neither above 0.9% to reach the Playoff.
The series cuts against the numbers. East Carolina holds a 4-0 record, winning the 2024 meeting 20-14, the lone thread favoring the visitor in an otherwise coin-flip pricing picture.
A near-even matchup: model, line, and exchange all shade Old Dominion by a whisker, while the 4-0 series is East Carolina's only counterweight.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as East Carolina's win price; Old Dominion's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line East Carolina is favored, below it Old Dominion is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the East Carolina vs Old Dominion game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the East Carolina vs Old Dominion market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do East Carolina and Old Dominion play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Old Dominion.
Who is favored?
The model projects East Carolina by 6.2 (65% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
East Carolina lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →