Oklahoma State vs Tulsa
Oklahoma State visit Tulsa in Week 1. The model favors Oklahoma State by 7.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The SP+ ratings separate these teams by 13 points, Oklahoma State at 6.9 (39th) against Tulsa at -6.1 (92nd), and the model projects the visitors by 10.6. That lands just inside the consensus spread of Tulsa +13.5, so the market prices Oklahoma State more aggressively than the model: 79% implied versus 74%. The ProphetX exchange pushes further still, listing Oklahoma State at -500 (83%) and Tulsa at +460 (18%).
Unit ranks favor Oklahoma State throughout, offense 44th to 80th and defense 48th to 99th, and the projected total of 59.3 fits a game the model expects the favorite to control. The series leans Oklahoma State 5-1, but the lone Tulsa win was the most recent meeting, a 19-12 result in 2025. Season simulations land both near even win totals, 6.5 for Oklahoma State and 6.4 for Tulsa, though Playoff odds diverge at 6.2% to 1.5% and title odds sit at 0.2% to 0%.
The disagreement is one of degree: everyone likes Oklahoma State, the market and exchange just price it steeper than SP+ does, leaving the favorite side thinner than the number suggests.
Model and market both back Oklahoma State, but the spread and exchange price the favorite steeper than the 10.6-point projection warrants.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Oklahoma State's win price; Tulsa's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Oklahoma State is favored, below it Tulsa is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Oklahoma State vs Tulsa game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Oklahoma State vs Tulsa market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Oklahoma State and Tulsa play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Tulsa.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oklahoma State by 7.5 (68% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Oklahoma State lead 5-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →