Middle Tennessee vs Marshall
Middle Tennessee visit Marshall in Week 2. The model favors Marshall by 8.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a game between two bottom-tier ratings: Marshall at -14.4 (117th) against Middle Tennessee at -20.8 (127th). That 6.4-point gap drives a projected Marshall margin of 8.8 and a 70% model win probability. The market sits well past that, pricing Marshall -13.5 with a 79% implied win probability, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to -475, or 83% for Marshall against +455 (18%) on Middle Tennessee. The consensus total is 56.8.
The disagreement is the story: the model sees Marshall roughly a touchdown better, while the market and exchange treat the edge as nearly two scores. Unit ranks hint at why the price leans Marshall, whose offense (#87) grades far ahead of Middle Tennessee's (#122), though both defenses rate near the floor at #133 and #131. Series history is close at 5-4 Marshall, and the last meeting in 2025 went Marshall 42-28.
Early results cut against the price. Middle Tennessee opened with a 38-14 win over Murray State, while Marshall was shut out 0-45 at Penn State. Season simulations still favor Marshall, 6 projected wins to 4.6, with neither team given Playoff or title equity.
Model makes Marshall by 8.8, but the market's -13.5 and the exchange's 83% price a wider edge than the ratings gap supports.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Middle Tennessee's win price; Marshall's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Middle Tennessee is favored, below it Marshall is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Middle Tennessee vs Marshall game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Middle Tennessee vs Marshall market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Middle Tennessee and Marshall play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Marshall.
Who is favored?
The model projects Marshall by 8.7 (70% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Marshall lead 5-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →