Marshall vs James Madison
Marshall visit James Madison in Week 5. The model favors James Madison by 25. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: James Madison rates 9.9 (37th) against Marshall at -12.5 (115th), and the model projects the Dukes by 24.8 with a 93% win probability. The market is more cautious, pricing James Madison at -18.5 with a 55.8 total and an 87% implied edge, while the ProphetX exchange sits between at Marshall +780 (11%) and James Madison -870 (90%). Every source points the same direction; the disagreement is only about size, with the model's 24.8 running well past the -18.5 line.
The unit splits explain the gap. James Madison ranks 48th on offense and 27th on defense, against Marshall's 82nd offense and 134th defense, so the model's margin leans on the Dukes attacking a bottom-tier Marshall stop unit. The series is close at James Madison 2-1, and the last meeting in 2025 went to the Dukes 35-23. Season simulations reinforce the tiers: James Madison projects 10.5 wins and a 34.5% Playoff chance, Marshall 7 wins and 0.1%.
Form tracks the ratings. James Madison is 4-0 with wins over Liberty 20-13, Wagner 87-3, San Diego State 26-13 and Old Dominion 46-20. Marshall lost 0-45 at Penn State, then edged Middle Tennessee 28-26, Missouri State 30-24 and Gardner-Webb 36-35, three single-score results that fit a 134th-ranked defense and undercut confidence in covering 18.5.
Model, market and exchange all favor James Madison heavily; the only live question is whether the Dukes clear 18.5.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Marshall's win price; James Madison's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Marshall is favored, below it James Madison is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 17.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Marshall vs James Madison game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Marshall vs James Madison market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Marshall and James Madison play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at James Madison.
Who is favored?
The model projects James Madison by 25 (94% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 2-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →