Marshall vs Missouri State
Marshall visit Missouri State in Week 3. The model favors Marshall by 3.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Marshall at -11.7 (rank 113) and Missouri State at -16.4 (rank 124), a 4.7-point gap that yields a projected Marshall margin of 2.3 and a model win probability of 56% to Missouri State's 44%. The consensus line agrees on direction but stretches it: Missouri State +3.8, total 52, with implied probabilities of 59% Marshall and 41% Missouri State. The ProphetX exchange pushes further still, pricing Marshall at -178 (64%) against Missouri State at +164 (38%). Every source favors Marshall; the disagreement is only about degree, with the market and exchange more confident than the model.
The unit ranks explain the closeness. Marshall's offense (#79) clears Missouri State's (#120), but its defense (#131) rates below Missouri State's (#122), capping the separation. The series adds a caution flag: Missouri State leads 0-1 after a 21-20 win in the 2025 meeting, a one-point result that undercuts any read of Marshall as a comfortable favorite.
Both teams carry matching profiles this season: a blowout loss to a power opponent (Marshall 0-45 at Penn State, Missouri State 0-50 at Texas A&M) beside a home win (Marshall 28-26 over Middle Tennessee, Missouri State 48-14 over Lindenwood). Projected win totals sit at 6.4 for Marshall and 5 for Missouri State, framing this as a narrow edge rather than a mismatch.
The model shades Marshall by 2.3, and both the market and the exchange lean harder that way, leaving thin edge on the favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Marshall vs Missouri State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Marshall vs Missouri State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Marshall and Missouri State play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Missouri State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Marshall by 3.9 (59% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Missouri State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →