Wisconsin vs Iowa
Wisconsin visit Iowa in Week 9. The model favors Iowa by 6.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Iowa 12.4 (24th) against Wisconsin's 8.7 (40th), a gap that drives a projected Iowa margin of 6.1 and a 64 percent model win probability. The market is more cautious: Iowa -3.5 implies 58 percent, and the ProphetX exchange splits the difference at 61 percent (Iowa -158, Wisconsin +150 at 40 percent). So the model carries the heavier Iowa lean, with roughly a field-goal of daylight between its projected margin and the posted 3.5.
The unit ranks explain the 36.5 total. Both defenses sit in the top ten (Iowa 10th, Wisconsin 9th) while both offenses lag, Wisconsin 93rd and Iowa 62nd. That profile frames a low-scoring, defense-led game in which field position and possessions matter more than raw point production, and it rationalizes why the consensus total sits this low.
Series history is even at 6-6, but the last meeting was lopsided: Iowa won 37-0 in 2025. Resumes diverge in quality of losses. Wisconsin's two defeats came at Notre Dame (13-41) and at UCLA (7-17), with a road win at Penn State 24-20. Iowa's losses were tighter, 14-31 to Ohio State and 10-13 at Minnesota, alongside a 20-19 win at Michigan. The projections nearly match on wins, 8 for Wisconsin and 7.8 for Iowa, yet Iowa's Playoff odds (11 percent) dwarf Wisconsin's (6.1 percent).
Model backs Iowa harder than the market does, and the 6.1 projected margin sits a field goal clear of the posted 3.5.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Wisconsin's win price; Iowa's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Wisconsin is favored, below it Iowa is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Wisconsin vs Iowa game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Wisconsin vs Iowa market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Wisconsin and Iowa play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Iowa.
Who is favored?
The model projects Iowa by 6.1 (64% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 6-6 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →