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Matchup preview

Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan

Eastern Michigan visit Western Michigan in Week 12. The model favors Western Michigan by 18.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
13%
87%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#125SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#80
#118FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#79
1239EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1546
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Eastern MichiganWestern Michigansolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Western Michigan lead 8-4
Western Michigan have won the last 3
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
31-21
Western Michigan
at Eastern Michigan
2024
26-18
Western Michigan
at Western Michigan
2023
45-21
Western Michigan
at Eastern Michigan
2022
45-23
Eastern Michigan
at Western Michigan
2021
22-21
Eastern Michigan
at Eastern Michigan
2020
53-42
Eastern Michigan
at Western Michigan
2019
34-27
Eastern Michigan
at Eastern Michigan
2018
27-24
Western Michigan
at Western Michigan
2017
20-17
Western Michigan
at Eastern Michigan
2016
45-31
Western Michigan
at Western Michigan
2015
58-28
Western Michigan
at Eastern Michigan
2014
51-7
Western Michigan
at Western Michigan
More Week 12 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan play?

Week 12 of 2026, on Nov 18, 2026 at Western Michigan.

Who is favored?

The model projects Western Michigan by 18.7 (87% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Western Michigan lead 8-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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