Western Michigan vs Rice
Western Michigan visit Rice in Week 3. The model favors Western Michigan by 9.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 12.9 points, rating Western Michigan at -2.2 (rank 78) against Rice at -15.1 (rank 120), and the model projects the Broncos by 10.5. The market lands a shade lighter at Rice +9.5 with a 43.5 total, and the pricing tracks closely across venues: SP+ gives Western Michigan 74%, the consensus line implies 72%, and the ProphetX exchange sits at -325, or 76%. That is a tight cluster with no real disagreement to trade against, the exchange leaning marginally firmer on the favorite than the books.
The unit ranks explain the edge. Western Michigan's defense (#50) is the only above-average side on the field, and it faces a Rice offense ranked #123. Neither offense grades well, with the Broncos at #106 and Rice's defense at #112, which fits the middling 43.5 total. Season-long, the simulations project 7.5 wins and 4% Playoff odds for Western Michigan versus 4.3 wins and 0.1% for Rice. Results add nuance: Western Michigan pushed Michigan to 12-13 before hanging 49 on Monmouth, while Rice handled Houston Christian 31-3 but was shut out 0-52 at Notre Dame, a split that leaves the double-digit number defensible.
Model, books, and exchange all cluster near 74% on Western Michigan, leaving little daylight to trade at Rice +9.5.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Western Michigan's win price; Rice's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Western Michigan is favored, below it Rice is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Western Michigan vs Rice game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Western Michigan vs Rice market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Western Michigan and Rice play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Rice.
Who is favored?
The model projects Western Michigan by 9.9 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →