Kent State vs Western Michigan
Kent State visit Western Michigan in Week 6. The model favors Western Michigan by 21. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these MAC teams by 15.2 rating points, pegging Western Michigan at -7.2 (96th) against Kent State at -22.4 (130th). That gap drives an 86% model win probability and a projected 17.6-point margin for the host. The consensus market is more cautious: Western Michigan -13.5 with a 79% implied probability, while the ProphetX exchange prices the Broncos at -530, or 84%. The model's projected margin sits more than four points above the market spread, so the disagreement tilts toward the Western Michigan side against the number.
Unit ranks point the same way: Western Michigan's defense (72nd) is the only top-100 group on either side, against Kent State's 132nd offense and 122nd defense. Kent State's two wins came over Wofford and Ball State, framed by losses of 0-57 at South Carolina and 3-59 at Ohio State. Western Michigan sits 3-2 with a one-point loss at Michigan and a 20-17 win at Buffalo. The series favors Western Michigan 4-0, last 52-21 in 2024, and simulations project 7.5 wins for the Broncos to 4.5 for Kent State.
The model leans harder than the market on Western Michigan, with ratings, unit ranks, and a 4-0 series all pointing one direction.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kent State vs Western Michigan game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kent State vs Western Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kent State and Western Michigan play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Western Michigan.
Who is favored?
The model projects Western Michigan by 21 (90% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Western Michigan lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →