Redshirt
Matchup preview

Bowling Green vs Western Michigan

Bowling Green visit Western Michigan in Week 9. The model favors Western Michigan by 21.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
9%
91%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#134SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#80
#112FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#79
1260EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1546
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Bowling GreenWestern Michigansolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Bowling Green lead 4-3
Bowling Green have won the last 3
20142024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
31-13
Bowling Green
at Bowling Green
2023
34-10
Bowling Green
at Western Michigan
2022
13-9
Bowling Green
at Bowling Green
2019
49-10
Western Michigan
at Western Michigan
2018
42-35
Western Michigan
at Bowling Green
2015
41-27
Bowling Green
at Western Michigan
2014
26-14
Western Michigan
at Bowling Green
More Week 9 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Bowling Green vs Western Michigan game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Bowling Green vs Western Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Bowling Green and Western Michigan play?

Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Western Michigan.

Who is favored?

The model projects Western Michigan by 21.8 (91% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Bowling Green lead 4-3 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →