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Matchup preview

Utah vs Arizona

Utah visit Arizona in Week 11. The model favors Arizona by 0.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
49%
51%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
UTAH -1.5
Total (O/U)
51.5
Favorite
UTAH
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
Utah
54%

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Utah64%-2 ptsvsArizona36%+2 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Utah favoredArizona favoredNov 2Nov 3Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Utah's win price; Arizona's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Utah is favored, below it Arizona is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#10SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#14
#8FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#29
1976EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1688
2.5%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.7%
UtahArizonasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Utah lead 6-4
Arizona have won the last 2
20142024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
23-10
Arizona
at Utah
2023
42-18
Arizona
at Arizona
2022
45-20
Utah
at Utah
2021
38-29
Utah
at Arizona
2019
35-7
Utah
at Arizona
2018
42-10
Utah
at Utah
2017
30-24
Utah
at Arizona
2016
36-23
Utah
at Utah
2015
37-30
Arizona
at Arizona
2014
42-10
Arizona
at Utah
More Week 11 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Utah vs Arizona game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Utah vs Arizona market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Utah and Arizona play?

Week 11 of 2026, on Nov 14, 2026 at Arizona.

Who is favored?

The model projects Arizona by 0.4 (51% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Utah lead 6-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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