Utah State vs Utah
Utah State visit Utah in Week 3. The model favors Utah by 28.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch and the market pushes it further. The model rates Utah 14.8 (22nd) against Utah State at -7.1 (100th), a gap that yields a projected Utah margin of 24.3 and a 93% win probability. The consensus line of -28.2 is four points steeper than the model number, lifting market-implied odds to 96%. The ProphetX exchange prices the favorite side near 98%, tighter still. Every layer agrees on direction; the only dispute is how far past the mid-20s the true margin sits.
Unit ranks explain the spread: Utah's offense (15th) and defense (29th) tower over Utah State's 96th offense and 94th defense. Early results reinforce it. Utah opened 66-14 over Idaho and 43-10 over Arkansas, while Utah State fell 17-29 to Idaho State and 14-16 at Washington, scoring 14 or 17 in each loss. The series adds Utah's 2-0 mark and a 38-21 win in the 2024 meeting. Season projections split the programs cleanly: Utah at 8.2 wins with 21% Playoff odds against 3.7 wins and 0.2% for Utah State.
The tension is not the winner but the number. With the market line 3.9 points above the model margin and exchange pricing implying 98%, the value question is whether Utah covers a spread the model itself does not fully endorse.
Every model and market layer points one way; the only live question is whether Utah covers a market line 3.9 points past its projection.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Utah State's win price; Utah's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Utah State is favored, below it Utah is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Utah State vs Utah game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Utah State vs Utah market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Utah State and Utah play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Utah.
Who is favored?
The model projects Utah by 28.7 (96% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Utah lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →