Utah vs Iowa State
Utah visit Iowa State in Week 4. The model favors Utah by 8.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams cleanly: Utah rates 17 (19th) against Iowa State at 5.8 (52nd), yielding a projected Utah margin of 8.8 and a 70% win probability. The consensus market agrees, posting Iowa State +8.3 with a 48.5 total and a 69% implied Utah edge. The ProphetX exchange pushes further, pricing Utah at -320 (76%) versus Iowa State +295 (25%), so the only real gap between model and market sits in the exchange leaning more one-sided than the fundamentals require.
The unit ranks explain the spread. Utah pairs the 14th offense with the 21st defense, while Iowa State runs an 80th-ranked offense behind a 28th defense, meaning the Cyclones' path leans on that defense holding. Series history offers the counterweight: Iowa State is 1-0, having taken the 2024 meeting 31-28, a reminder the gap has stayed close on the field.
Results reinforce the ratings. Utah is 3-0 by a combined 142-24, including 43-10 over Arkansas and a 33-0 shutout of Utah State. Iowa State sits at 55-7 and 38-10 in its wins but showed a ceiling in a 13-16 loss at Iowa, the type of low-scoring game the total at 48.5 anticipates.
Model and market line up almost exactly on Utah by a touchdown-plus, and the exchange prices the Utes even harder.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Utah's win price; Iowa State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Utah is favored, below it Iowa State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Utah vs Iowa State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Utah vs Iowa State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Utah and Iowa State play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Iowa State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Utah by 8.8 (70% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Iowa State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →