Utah vs Cincinnati
Utah visit Cincinnati in Week 9. The model favors Utah by 8.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these Big 12 sides clearly: Utah rates 18 (10th) against Cincinnati at 6.7 (49th), and the model projects Utah by 8.9 points with a 71% win probability. The market shaves that edge, pricing Cincinnati at +6.5 for a 35% implied chance, while the ProphetX exchange sits closer to the model at Utah -245 (71%) and Cincinnati +225 (31%). The ratings gap is rooted in the defensive line: Utah's unit ranks 22nd to Cincinnati's 78th, and the offenses are tighter at 13th versus 21st.
Results reinforce the hierarchy. Utah is 7-0, with road wins at Iowa State 31-17 and Colorado 27-24 plus a 21-13 defense of Houston, and the ceiling showed in blowouts of Idaho 66-14 and Arkansas 43-10. Cincinnati is 5-2 but its defense has leaked, surrendering 34 at Arizona in a 7-34 loss and 45 at West Virginia. The lone series meeting, 2025, went to Utah 45-14.
Season-long, the simulation projects Utah to 10.1 wins with a 53.3% Playoff chance, against Cincinnati's 7.3 wins and 3.1%. The total of 56.8 reflects two offenses that score, but the model and exchange both land near 71% for Utah, leaving the market's 65% as the softer number on the road favorite.
Model, exchange and series all point to Utah by roughly a touchdown; the 6.5-point market line is the lone soft spot on the favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Utah's win price; Cincinnati's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Utah is favored, below it Cincinnati is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Utah vs Cincinnati game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Utah vs Cincinnati market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Utah and Cincinnati play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Cincinnati.
Who is favored?
The model projects Utah by 8.9 (71% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Utah lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →