Troy vs Louisiana
Troy visit Louisiana in Week 7. The model favors Louisiana by 6.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ sees Louisiana as the stronger side, rating it -2.3 (83rd) against Troy at -6.6 (100th), a 4.3-point gap that converts to a projected Louisiana margin of 6.7 and a 66% win probability. Both the market and the exchange price the game tighter: the consensus line sits at Louisiana -4 with a 49.3 total and 60% implied, while ProphetX offers Louisiana -164 (62%) and Troy +160 (38%). The model is the most confident party on the home side.
The unit splits favor Louisiana on offense, ranked 69th to Troy's 94th, while the defenses sit close together at 93rd and 98th. Series history cuts the other way: Troy leads 5-4 and took the last meeting 35-23 in 2025, context the ratings do not capture.
Results give both teams a 3-2 and 4-2 shape respectively. Troy has beaten Sam Houston 24-21, Alabama State 34-17 and Southern Miss 55-34 but fell at Missouri 17-27 and Utah State 10-21. Louisiana handled Lamar 38-7, UAB 21-14, Charlotte 34-7 and Arkansas State 23-20, with losses at USC 30-49 and Louisiana Tech 31-32. Projected win totals read 8 for Louisiana, 6.5 for Troy.
The model leans harder on Louisiana than the market, but Troy's 5-4 series edge and recent 35-23 win keep the contract honest.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Troy's win price; Louisiana's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Troy is favored, below it Louisiana is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Troy vs Louisiana game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Troy vs Louisiana market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Troy and Louisiana play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Louisiana.
Who is favored?
The model projects Louisiana by 6.7 (66% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Troy lead 5-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →