Troy vs Missouri
Troy visit Missouri in Week 3. The model favors Missouri by 27. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these programs by more than 22 rating points, pinning Missouri 21st at 15.1 and Troy 101st at minus 7.1. That gap yields a projected Missouri margin of 24.6 points and a 93 percent win probability. The market pushes slightly harder: a consensus line of Missouri minus 26.7, a total of 50, and a 95 percent implied edge, while the ProphetX exchange stretches to Missouri minus 3200, or 97 percent, against Troy plus 1900 at 5 percent.
The unit ranks explain the tilt. Missouri grades 30th on offense and 17th on defense; Troy sits 97th and 95th. Both enter unbeaten: Troy edged Sam Houston 24-21 and beat Alabama State 34-17, while Missouri rolled Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14 and won at Kansas 38-21. The lone prior meeting, a 42-10 Missouri win in 2019, fits the ratings order. Season simulations project 7.2 wins and a 13.9 percent Playoff chance for Missouri against 6.9 wins and 1.1 percent for Troy.
Model and market align on a comfortable Missouri hold, leaving only the size of the margin near 25 points in question.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Troy's win price; Missouri's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Troy is favored, below it Missouri is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Troy vs Missouri game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Troy vs Missouri market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Troy and Missouri play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Missouri.
Who is favored?
The model projects Missouri by 27 (95% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Missouri lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →