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Matchup preview

Troy vs Utah State

Troy visit Utah State in Week 4. The model favors Troy by 0. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
50%
50%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
USU -3
Total (O/U)
47.5
Favorite
USU
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
Troy
43%

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Troy1%-40 ptsvsUtah State99%+40 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Troy favoredUtah State favoredSep 14Sep 18Sep 21Sep 24Sep 27

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Troy's win price; Utah State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Troy is favored, below it Utah State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#100SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#105
#93FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#80
1384EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1446
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
TroyUtah Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
More Week 4 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Troy vs Utah State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Troy vs Utah State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Troy and Utah State play?

Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Utah State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Troy by 0 (50% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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