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Matchup preview

Boston College vs SMU

Boston College visit SMU in Week 5. The model favors SMU by 19.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
12%
88%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
0%25%50%75%100%Boston College favoredSMU favoredSep 20Sep 21Sep 22

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Boston College's win price; SMU's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Boston College is favored, below it SMU is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#85SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#29
#88FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#23
1359EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1852
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
Boston CollegeSMUsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
SMU lead 2-1
SMU have won the last 2
20232025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
45-13
SMU
at Boston College
2024
38-28
SMU
at SMU
2023
23-14
Boston College
neutral site
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Boston College vs SMU game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Boston College vs SMU market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Boston College and SMU play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at SMU.

Who is favored?

The model projects SMU by 19.3 (88% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

SMU lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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