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Matchup preview

Boise State vs Fresno State

Boise State visit Fresno State in Week 6. The model favors Boise State by 6.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
65%
35%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
BOIS -9
Total (O/U)
48.5
Favorite
BOIS
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Boise State99%+11 ptsvsFresno State1%-11 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Boise State favoredFresno State favoredSep 29Oct 2Oct 5Oct 8Oct 11Oct 12

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Boise State's win price; Fresno State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Boise State is favored, below it Fresno State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#26SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#51
#55FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#85
1594EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1548
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Boise StateFresno Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Boise State lead 6-5
Fresno State have won the last 2
20142025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
30-7
Fresno State
at Boise State
2023
37-30
Fresno State
at Fresno State
2022
40-20
Boise State
at Boise State
2022
28-16
Fresno State
at Boise State
2021
40-14
Boise State
at Fresno State
2018
24-17
Boise State
at Boise State
2018
19-16
Fresno State
at Boise State
2017
28-17
Fresno State
at Fresno State
2017
17-14
Boise State
at Boise State
2014
37-27
Boise State
at Boise State
2014
28-14
Boise State
at Boise State
More Week 6 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Boise State vs Fresno State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Boise State vs Fresno State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Boise State and Fresno State play?

Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 11, 2026 at Fresno State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Boise State by 6.5 (65% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Boise State lead 6-5 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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