Redshirt
Matchup preview

Fresno State vs Utah State

Fresno State visit Utah State in Week 10. The model favors Fresno State by 9.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
72%
28%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
FRES -1.3
Total (O/U)
43.3
Favorite
FRES
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Fresno State53%-12 ptsvsUtah State47%+12 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Fresno State favoredUtah State favoredOct 27Nov 1Nov 3Nov 5Nov 7

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Fresno State's win price; Utah State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Fresno State is favored, below it Utah State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#61SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#106
#85FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#80
1548EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1446
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Fresno StateUtah Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Utah State lead 4-2
20152025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
28-17
Utah State
at Fresno State
2023
37-32
Fresno State
at Utah State
2020
35-16
Fresno State
at Utah State
2019
37-35
Utah State
at Fresno State
2016
38-20
Utah State
at Utah State
2015
56-14
Utah State
at Fresno State
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Fresno State vs Utah State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Fresno State vs Utah State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Fresno State and Utah State play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 8, 2026 at Utah State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Fresno State by 9.4 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Utah State lead 4-2 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →