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Matchup preview

Fresno State vs San Diego State

Fresno State visit San Diego State in Week 7. The model favors Fresno State by 8.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
70%
30%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
FRES -6.8
Total (O/U)
46
Favorite
FRES
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Fresno State1%-7 ptsvsSan Diego State99%+7 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Fresno State favoredSan Diego State favoredOct 5Oct 12Oct 15Oct 17Oct 19

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Fresno State's win price; San Diego State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Fresno State is favored, below it San Diego State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#61SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#104
#85FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#67
1548EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1528
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Fresno StateSan Diego Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 5-5
San Diego State have won the last 2
20142025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
23-0
San Diego State
at Fresno State
2023
33-18
San Diego State
at San Diego State
2022
32-28
Fresno State
at Fresno State
2021
30-20
Fresno State
at San Diego State
2019
17-7
San Diego State
at San Diego State
2018
23-14
Fresno State
at Fresno State
2017
27-3
Fresno State
at San Diego State
2016
17-3
San Diego State
at Fresno State
2015
21-7
San Diego State
at San Diego State
2014
24-13
Fresno State
at Fresno State
More Week 7 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Fresno State vs San Diego State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Fresno State vs San Diego State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Fresno State and San Diego State play?

Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 18, 2026 at San Diego State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Fresno State by 8.8 (70% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 5-5 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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