Wyoming vs Central Michigan
Wyoming visit Central Michigan in Week 3. The model favors Central Michigan by 2.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Wyoming 117th at -13.7 and Central Michigan 126th at -16.9, a 3.2-point edge that yields a projected Wyoming margin of 0.8 and a 52% model win probability. The market leans the other way: the consensus line sits at Central Michigan -1.5 with a 39.3 total, implying 54% for the home side, and the ProphetX exchange prices Central Michigan at -113 (53%) against Wyoming +107 (48%). The disagreement is small in points but flips the favorite.
The unit ranks underline how thin the margin is. Wyoming pairs the 134th offense with the 80th defense, while Central Michigan runs the 133rd offense behind the 103rd defense, leaving Wyoming the only above-average side on the field. Both projections land near even: five wins for Wyoming, 5.2 for Central Michigan, with neither carrying Playoff or title odds. The series offers one prior data point, Wyoming's 37-14 win in 2017.
Early results track the ratings. Wyoming fell 13-35 at Colorado State before edging Northern Colorado 21-13; Central Michigan was routed 7-38 at New Mexico, then survived Colgate 13-10.
Model nudges Wyoming, market and exchange back Central Michigan by a point: a near-coin-flip whose only above-average unit sits with the road side.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Wyoming's win price; Central Michigan's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Wyoming is favored, below it Central Michigan is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Wyoming vs Central Michigan game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Wyoming vs Central Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Wyoming and Central Michigan play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Central Michigan.
Who is favored?
The model projects Central Michigan by 2.5 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Wyoming lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →