Oregon State vs Houston
Oregon State visit Houston in Week 1. The model favors Houston by 15.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Houston at 7.4 (rank 38) against Oregon State at -5.6 (rank 89), a gap that yields an 82% model win probability and a projected margin of Houston by 15.4. The market runs steeper: the consensus line sits at Houston -21 with a 49.5 total, implying 90%, while the ProphetX exchange offers Houston at -1250 (93%) and Oregon State at +1150 (8%). The model and the price agree on direction, but the roughly six-point spread between the 15.4 projection and the -21 line marks where the market extends past SP+.
Unit ratings frame the mismatch. Houston grades out at #34 on offense and #46 on defense; Oregon State sits at #101 and #69. Series history is short and close: Houston leads 1-0, taking the lone meeting in 2025 by 27-24, a three-point result that undercuts the current 21-point spread.
Over 10,000 simulations Houston projects to 7.1 wins with a 7% Playoff chance and 0.1% title odds, against market title odds of 0.7%. Oregon State projects to 5.2 wins with 0% Playoff and 0% title equity. The numbers point one way, though the exchange's 93% leaves little room on the favorite.
Model and market both back Houston, but the exchange price at 93% pushes past SP+ 82%, leaving thin value on the favorite.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Oregon State's win price; Houston's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Oregon State is favored, below it Houston is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Oregon State vs Houston game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Oregon State vs Houston market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Oregon State and Houston play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Houston.
Who is favored?
The model projects Houston by 15.7 (83% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Houston lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →