Florida vs Auburn
Florida visit Auburn in Week 3. The model favors Florida by 3.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Florida 19.4 (13th) against Auburn's 11.7 (30th), and that 7.7-point ratings gap drives a model line of Florida by 5.3 and a 63% Florida win probability. The market is more cautious: the consensus price sets Auburn +2.5 with a 53.3 total, implying 56% for Florida, while the ProphetX exchange offers Florida at -130 (57%) and Auburn at +124 (45%). Model and market lean the same direction, but the model's edge on Florida is roughly a touchdown wider than the price reflects.
The unit splits explain the gap. Florida grades out at offense #21 and defense #10; Auburn sits at offense #54 with defense #17, so Florida holds the edge on both sides and a clear one on offense. Early results are noisy against soft slates: Florida rolled Florida Atlantic 66-21 and Campbell 52-3, while Auburn survived Baylor 17-16 and beat Southern Miss 43-8. The lone series meeting, 2019, went to Florida 24-13.
Season-long, the sims favor Florida at 7.6 projected wins, 25.5% Playoff and 2.2% title, versus Auburn's 6.7 wins, 6.2% and 0.4%. Both title figures sit above their thin market marks of 1% and 0.7%.
Model and market both back Florida, but SP+ prices the road side a touchdown stronger than Auburn +2.5 suggests.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida's win price; Auburn's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida is favored, below it Auburn is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida vs Auburn game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida vs Auburn market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida and Auburn play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Auburn.
Who is favored?
The model projects Florida by 3.8 (59% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Florida lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →