Baylor vs Auburn
Baylor meet Auburn in Week 1. The model favors Auburn by 4.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ and the consensus line read this neutral-site opener almost identically. The model gives Auburn 68% and projects a 7.7-point margin; the market sits at Auburn -7.2 with a 67% implied probability. The ProphetX exchange is the lone outlier, pricing Auburn at -275 for 73% against Baylor's +255, a five-point gap over the model that thins the value on the favorite.
The ratings support the number: Auburn at 11.5 (26th) over Baylor at 3.8 (53rd) is a 7.7-point separation that maps cleanly onto the projected margin. The unit splits explain the shape. Auburn's defense (#19) is the strongest single unit on the field and should test a Baylor offense (#27) that outranks its own defense (#89). Auburn's offense (#55) is the weaker of the four rated groups.
The series is short: Auburn won the only prior meeting 38-24 in 2025. The season outlooks are close, both projected near six wins, but Auburn's 8.4% Playoff odds outrun Baylor's 2.7%, and title markets price both at 0.7%. Nothing in the numbers argues with a mid-single-digit Auburn edge.
Model, market and history all land on Auburn by a touchdown; the exchange's 73% is the only price stretching past fair value.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Baylor's win price; Auburn's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Baylor is favored, below it Auburn is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Baylor vs Auburn game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Baylor vs Auburn market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Baylor and Auburn play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at a neutral site.
Who is favored?
The model projects Auburn by 4.8 (61% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Auburn lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →